Tracking new retail real estate concepts is never an easy task. It’s as challenging today as it’s ever been, and there’s no telling how retail landlords might be able to predict the tenant landscape in the 2030s? Commerce + Communities Today asked experts to prognosticate on how operators may be potentially leasing space in the next decade. We told them to let their imaginations run wild and build from present-day trends in in-store experience, demographics, technology, and consumer behavior. Here’s some of what they came up with.
Cricket, Anyone?
Hundreds of millions of people in India, South Africa and Pakistan are amazingly passionate about cricket. They live and breathe the sport, but could a cricket-themed, sports entertainment concept thrive in the U.S.? As the VP of real estate intelligence and business development for Gallelli, Garrick Brown had his doubts. “I remember running into people looking to lease space in the United States for a cricket concept,” he recalled. “I was like: ‘You know, maybe you should tweak it and do baseball instead. It isn’t that far off from cricket.’” But as Brown sees it, America’s increasing diversity, along with the push for variety in live sports programming could put a more international spin on the sports entertainment category in the years ahead.
New mixed-use community concepts based on international sports like soccer, field hockey and table tennis, he noted, very well may prove popular with immigrants, their descendants and newly initiated fans alike. Brown cited the recent US popularity of Argentine soccer legend Lionel Messi and his top-selling pink jersey. “Soccer and soccer stores are taking off, and you could put a lot of that on Messi,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing happen with other international sports.”
Foodie Offerings from New Regions
In a related trend, Brown predicted rising diversity may drive grocery and food-and-beverage concepts around the country. Catering to emerging exotic tastes with traditional and fusion concepts from heretofore unrepresented cultures and cuisines could find a passionate audience. Americans are embracing foodie culture and haute cuisine like never before, he explained. In one example of the growing sophistication of the U.S. palate, Michelin published its first Atlanta restaurant guide this past October. “We are a full-on, 24/7 foodie culture now,” Brown said, “but as interesting as things like Korean corn dogs and Japanese breakfasts sound, there’s still a ton of space to be explored; all kinds of cuisines from Africa, the Middle East and even Europe.”
Super Ghost Kitchens
Four-course meals at Michelin-starred restaurants only make up a part of the food-and-beverage spectrum. Futurist.com chief futurist and think tank leader Nikolas Badminton says convenience could become even more central. And that will undoubtedly play a role in the retail real estate world. Thanks to logistic networking platforms, integrated with predictive analytics, driverless cars and autonomous delivery robots, and other innovations, consumers could potentially get food delivered in minutes, negating the need to visit traditional quick-service restaurants. “If you look at the statistics and what some restaurant industry observers are saying, by 2030, you could have these ghost kitchens starting to push out QSRs,” Badminton said. While no one knows exactly how or what will happen in this landscape, Badminton opines, “There’s no doubt ghost kitchens are going to get larger and more prevalent.”
In one scenario, “super ghost kitchens” could build or lease cavernous spaces to whip up thousands of menu items on behalf of QSR brands, Badminton said. The Canada-based consultant, who has spoken at ICSC@Whistler, said there could be a downside: “These aren’t going to be places that you can even walk into, and that lower foot traffic is not necessarily going to be great for the overall retail ecosystem.”
Short-Term Offices
The post-COVID trend toward hybrid and remote work continues to affect the office sector: In February 2023, Cushman & Wakefield released a report called Obsolescence Equals Opportunity. They reported that, of 5.7 billion of office space that would exist at the end of the 2020s could be vacant, over 1 billion square feet could be vacant. As Badminton sees it, remote work could be the norm even for medium and large employers. However, companies will still have the need to gather in person – whether it be for brainstorming, team-building, conferences or other all-hands-on-deck events, he said. For the right operators, this demand could translate into new types of office tenants. “These would be creativity or productivity centers that companies could lease anywhere from two or three days to a month.”
The futurist also envisions wired, highly customizable, mixed-use community spaces packed with amenities. Retail landlords also could do deals with these temporary spaces for meeting and working. “If you’ve got 100 people working five days a week in that space for two weeks, they’re going to need food and other things. You could be bringing these customers right into your retail experience.”
Toronto-based StartWell is currently making strides in this direction, Badminton noted, by offering temporary boardrooms, meeting spaces, large-event venues, and even small-scale production studios for podcasts, video shoots, and live-streams. “So much office space has become obsolete,” he said, “but you could see these kinds of temporary spaces continuing to evolve and getting more creative and interesting.”
AI Gadget Stores
A decade from now, artificial intelligence advances could lead to a proliferation of gadgets that either work with or are independent of people’s smartphones, according to futurist Daniel Burrus of Burrus Research. Humane’s Ai Pin is a possible hint of things to come; the wearable device projects an image onto the user’s palm, allowing for AI interactions through touch, voice and gestures.
Stores and kiosks selling such gadgets could drive leasing revenue at marketplaces, Burrus noted, and the devices themselves could transform the retail experience. In one scenario, some form of earpiece, possibly connected to a small camera, constantly connects customer service personnel to nearly omniscient AI helpers. When a customer asks, “What else would go with this?” or seeks more information about product specs or what’s in stock, the AI would whisper the answer in the salesperson’s ear. “It will be giving [the salesperson] real-time, actionable information,” Burrus said. “They will know exactly: ‘It’s over on Aisle 20, and we do have your size.’”
Such innovations in commerce could ramp up the performance of inexperienced customer service agents, Burrus said. Also, shoppers could potentially use their own AI earpieces to interact directly with store data. “You could walk into a larger retail outlet and, instead of wandering around trying to find someone, just ask where the nearest associate is,” the futurist explained. The AI earpiece could inform the customer that the closest associate is in Aisle 4, he said, and tell the customer: “They’re just finishing up with someone. Would you like to wait or just go meet them?’”
Anti-AI Stores
Some of today’s entertainment tenants are leaning into the decidedly analog idea of putting down the smartphone for some in-person social connection and fun. That could mean gathering with friends to play retro arcade and pinball machines, breaking out classic board games or huddling in a listening room with vinyl records and a tricked-out sound system. As trends like AI accelerate, Badminton said, the craving for actual human connection will only deepen within the retail experience. “People want to connect in new and interesting ways and be part of a community,” he said. “We’ll see more demand for experiential shopping and retail spaces that are human-centric and artisanal.”
Some operators likely will focus on niche communities, such as fans of certain social media influencers, nostalgic movies or TV shows, Brown added. The launch of Central Perk Coffee Co., based off the hangout from the 1990/2000s sitcom Friends, is a great present-day example, he said. “Their strongest demographics are Millennials and Gen Z.”
Other consumers may reject interacting with AI helpers or shopping in empty, cashier-less stores that have a “post-apocalyptic feel,” Badminton said. Operators could lean into the communal aspect of shopping behavior and simply cater to this group by banning in-store AI and hiring friendly, competent, and sincere staff. “You could see stores having a sign: ‘We’re a proudly human-run business.’”